Political and economic expectations after the election

Executive Summary

The Hungarian election system did well and fulfilled the expectations, since the result is a strong governing majority. The reason for the weak performance of the left wing is not the election system, but the lack of support of left-wing parties. The previous election system also worked on the basis of a majority principle in case there was a significant difference between the number of votes cast for the winner and the runner-up. The big loser of the new election system is Jobbik, since it will have a much smaller parliamentary group sitting in the parliament then in the previous term. Voters could cast their ballots for more than 1,500 individual candidates and 31 party lists (including 13 lists pertaining to nationalities), which is a remarkable step forward in terms of democratic standards. As an extension of rights, also Hungarians living outside the country had the opportunity to vote, and this was the first time that disabled citizens were given state assistance to exercise their rights to vote.

The result of the election showed that there was no government-changing atmosphere. The negative campaign of the left-wing opposition against the Prime Minister has failed as well. The stability of the Hungarian political system is ensured by Fidesz-KDNP governing from the central position with a relatively strong support. The support of the radically protesting left wing and Jobbik has fallen behind that of the governing parties, and their ability to govern is also questioned. The Hungarian party system is expected to remain a three-pole system in the next four years.

As part of the analysis of the election results, it is worthwhile to make a summary of expectations regarding economic policy. The playing field of Hungarian economic policy is widened by strong parliamentary majority necessary for governance. The directions are determined by setting the principles and framework of economic policy as well as the pre-election priorities (the 10-item list of the Prime Minister). In addition to this, success depends on three factors: a consistent fiscal policy, a successful monetary policy and the European and regional economic situation.

You can download the full analysis in English here.

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