The number of Jobbik supporters has decreased by one-third compared to the level registered in September – reveals Nézőpont Intézet’s public opinion poll prepared at the request of Heti Válasz. The survey also points out that two-third of Hungarians are dissatisfied with the left wing’s performance. It is particularly bad news for MSZP that prior to the party’s forthcoming convention, one-third of leftist sympathizers continue to consider Ferenc Gyurcsány as leader of the Left, while only 4 percent said the same about József Tóbiás.
Although Jobbik was supported by 17 percent of the population in September, the party’s backing has receded by 5 percent to 12 percentage points by October. This trend continued in November when the party’s camp of symphatizers decreased by another 1 percentage point (within the margin of error) to 11 percent. This means that one-third less people sympathize with Jobbik compared to September, which indicates a clear erosion. Towards the end of the year, it can be stated that Gábor Vona’s people’s party strategy has not reached its ambitious goals.
The Fall season’s winner continues to be Fidesz-KDNP. The alliance’s support level has climbed back to 34 percent by September and retained this level through November as well. The left wing has not been able to gain any strength. The socialists’ support is unchanged at 7 percent, DK has 5 percent, Együtt has subsided by 1 percent to 1 percentage point, PM is unchanged at 1 percent, while LMP continues to be rated at 4 percent. Other parties have a combined support of 2 percent.
After the 32 percent level recorded in October, concealed and non-voters together account for 35 percent of the total population. This shows that those turning away from opposition parties have joined the group of concealed voters in increased numbers.
Based on statistics emulating likely election results (potential voters) the support levels of various parties are as follows: Fidesz-KDNP 48 percent, Jobbik 22 percent, MSZP 9, DK 7, Együtt 2, PM 1 and LMP 6 percent, while the potential aggregate camp of other parties are recorded at 5 percent. The proportion of potential camps has been influence by Jobbik’s activism despite an erosion of the party’s support base, while both Jobbik and govering party symphatizers are increasingly active, more so than the increasingly less active leftist symphatizers.
Public opinion is quite critical when it comes to assessing the leftist opposition, two-thirds of Hungarians are dissatisfied with the performance of the Hungarian Left. While MSZP symphatizers are most satisfied (52 percent), three-fourth of DK supporters are discontent with performance of the Left.
It is particularly bad news for MSZP that prior to the party’s forthcoming convention, 18 percent of the total population and one-third of leftist sympathizers continue to consider Ferenc Gyurcsány as leader of the Left, while only 5 percent of the total population and 4 percent of the Left said the same about József Tóbiás.
The apparent discontent with the Left and the president of MSZP underlines the need demonstrated by the voters for renewal of the left wing opposition regardless of party loyalty.
Methodology
Nézőpont Intézet’s public opinion poll completed by telephone during November 14-19, 2015 by asking 1000 people. This representative sample pertains to the population age 18 and over, sorted by gender, age, region, settlement type and schooling. In case of samples comprising the responses of 1000 people the maximum margin of error is 3,2 percent.
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