According to the latest opinion poll conducted by the Nézőpont Institute, Hungarians do not support the position of the European People’s Party and its leader, Manfred Weber, on several important issues, ranging from war to migration. This may pose a serious dilemma for the Tisza Party, which has recently joined the left-wing European People’s Party. However, the programme of the Patriots for Europe, which has become the biggest force on the European right, is in line with the will of the majority of Hungarian voters.
While a new right-wing party group promoting national interests, called Patriots for Europe, was formed in the European Parliament under the leadership of Hungary’s governing parties, the European People’s Party (EPP) once again formed a left-wing coalition with the socialists and liberals. This coalition, which the governing parties call the “pro-war” coalition, was joined by the Hungarian left-wing parties, including, foremost, Peter Magyar’s Tisza party.
The Nézőpont Institute examined how the European People’s Party voted on five particularly important decisions during the previous European parliamentary term, how Hungarians feel about them, and how the new right-wing party family Patriots for Europe think about those issues, on the basis of the group’s “Patriot Manifesto” of June 30. According to the poll results and the comparison of the group’s voting statistics, the EPP’s values on sovereignty protection, child protection, the migrant quota, the duty-free treatment of Ukrainian agricultural products, and the freezing of EU funds were completely contrary to the position held by Hungarian voters.
Sovereignty protection
While four-fifths of Hungarians (81 percent) agree that every country should defend its sovereignty against foreign influence, 86 percent of the European People’s Party voted in favour of a European Parliament resolution on Hungary, which condemned, among other things, the adoption of Hungary’s new sovereignty protection law. On the other hand, the Patriotic Manifesto concludes precisely in line with the position of the majority of Hungarians:
“We put sovereignty above federalism, freedom above dictates, and peace above conflict: this is the manifesto of the patriots serving Europe”.
Tightening the Child Protection Act
71 percent of Hungarians think that the Hungarian Child Protection Act should be tightened (or disagree that it should not be tightened), while only 22 percent consider it unnecessary. In contrast, 68 percent of the European People’s Party voted in favour of a European Parliament resolution condemning the Hungarian child protection law. The approved document criticized, among other things, the principle laid down in the Fundamental Law that the mother is a woman and the father is a man, and that Hungary protects the right of children to have their identity established in accordance with their sex at birth.
Although the Patriot Manifesto does not specifically mention Hungary’s Child Protection Law, the message is clearly detectable from the text. According to the authors of the manifesto, Europe is a defender of genuine freedoms, fundamental rights and human dignity, and at the same time “strongly opposes any attempt to restrict or reinterpret these freedoms” and “resists ultimatums to change them according to the latest fashionable trends”.
Migrant quota
The vote in favour of the migration pact was also seen as a move against the majority opinion of Hungarians. While more than two-thirds (69 percent) of Hungarian voters are against the idea of an EU member state having to pay HUF 8 million if it does not accept a migrant’s asylum application from another member state, 80 percent of the EPP voted in favour of a migrant quota, known as the “mandatory solidarity mechanism”, which would penalize countries that do not accept migrants.
The Patriot Manifesto represents a position on migration long supported by the vast majority of Hungarians. The document emphasizes that patriots want a Europe “determined to protect its borders, stop illegal migration, and preserve its cultural identity.”
Ukrainian Agricultural Products
Not only Hungarian farmers, but farmers in all Central European countries have been hit by the EU’s relaxed trade policy with Ukraine introduced due to the war. Despite the extension of the measure by the European Union, 69 percent of Hungarians oppose the provision of duty-free entry for Ukrainian agricultural products into the EU. However, 77 percent of the European People’s Party members present voted in favour of providing duty-free entry for Ukrainian products. The Patriot Manifesto does not address the issue of the Ukraine war, as it is a founding document rather than a topical political pamphlet. However, its text does mention that the founders’ vision of Europe is “a vision of nations ready to defend their peoples against any and all potential threats”, even if these threats are economic in nature.
EU Funds Due to Hungary
And last but not least, the issue of frozen EU funds is also viewed very differently in Brussels than at home. The majority of Hungarians (55 percent) believe that it is unfair to withhold the EU’s financial support from Hungary. By contrast, 90 percent of EPP MEPs in Brussels supported the financial sanctions against Hungary. However, the Patriotic Manifesto, in line with the opinion of the majority of Hungarians, emphasizes that the future Europe it envisages cannot justify its attacks on national sovereignty by exerting pressure through the European budget.
Methodology
The latest opinion-poll of the Nézőpont Institute was conducted between 1 and 3 of July, 2024, by interviewing 1,000 respondents by phone. For all surveys, the sample is representative of the adult population (18 years and older) by gender, age, region, type of settlement and education. In case of a sample size of 1000 respondents and a confidence level of 95 percent, the margin of sampling error is ± 3.16 percent. Respondent base = Hungarian voters, respondents who are willing to participate in a national election.
European Parliament resolutions and related votes cited in the analysis:
- Ongoing hearings on strengthening the rule of law in Hungary and its budgetary implications https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/TA-9-2024-0367_HU.pdf (eljárás: 2024/2683(RSP)) (2024.04.24.)
Votes: https://howtheyvote.eu/votes/168862 - Violations of EU law and the rights of LGBTIQ persons in Hungary as a result of legislative changes adopted in the Hungarian Parliament (procedure: 2021/2780(RSP) (vote: 2021.07.08.) https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/TA-9-2021-0362_HU.html;
Votes: https://howtheyvote.eu/votes/135099 - Management of migration and asylum crises https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/TA-9-2024-0179_HU.html (procedure: 2020/0279(COD)) (2024.04.10.);
Votes: https://howtheyvote.eu/votes/167531 - Provisional trade liberalisation measures additional to the trade concessions applicable to Ukrainian products under the EU/Euratom/Ukraine Association Agreement (procedure: 2024/0028(COD)) (2024.04.23.) https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/TA-9-2024-0304_HU.html;
Votes: https://howtheyvote.eu/votes/168586 - The situation in Hungary and the frozen EU funds (procedure: 2024/2512(RSP) (2024.01.18.) https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/TA-9-2024-0053_HU.html;
Votes: https://howtheyvote.eu/votes/163628